Leaderboard
Compare eligible forecasters using the method and evidence window shown below. Rankings reflect forecast skill.
Nobody is visible in this cohort yet
Appearing here is opt-in and needs a minimum sample of resolved forecasts, so an empty board means nobody has both consented and qualified.
How this is worked out
- Metric
- Normalized Brier skill — Test-only weekly normalized Brier-skill ranking; production policy is not approved.
- Minimum
- 10 eligible resolved forecasts in the rolling reputation evidence window. Additional eligibility rules apply.
- Ties
- Skill descending, resolved evidence descending, earliest qualification, stable contributor id; exact ties share rank.
- Period
- 21 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC to 28 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC. The ranking period is separate from the rolling evidence window.
- Corrections
- Rebuild the whole run. Earlier runs are kept, not overwritten.
Who isn't here
Appearing on this page is opt-in and off by default. Plenty of good forecasters have chosen not to be listed, and they're absent rather than ranked at zero — an empty row would tell you something about them that they asked us not to share.
Anyone under the 10-forecast minimum also isn't ranked. Evidence and activity requirements apply under the named methodology.
Current visibility consent is checked whenever this page is requested. It can't unpublish a newsletter that already went out, and we say so rather than imply otherwise.
About these rankings
Preview methodology. This test method is not approved for production rankings.
- Status
- Archived · newer calculation available
- Method approval
- Preview only
- Ranking period
- 21 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC to 28 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
- Category
- All
- Updated
- 25 Sept 2026, 13:40 UTC
- Freshness
- Update overdue; these are the last calculated standings.
- Listed forecasters
- 0 visible of 0 eligible
- Method
- Normalized Brier skill · higher is better. Test-only weekly normalized Brier-skill ranking; production policy is not approved.
- Evidence minimum
- 10 eligible resolved forecasts from the rolling reputation evidence window. This is separate from the weekly ranking period.
- Ties
- Skill descending, resolved evidence descending, earliest qualification, stable contributor ID; exact ties share rank.
Technical details
- Run
- 01a0d8cb-6e1a-7392-8ac5-8508827c2311 · v4
- Period code
- 2026-W39
- Policies
- test-only/leaderboard-brier-skill-v1 · test-only/public-profile-v1 · test-only/leaderboard-rebuild-v1
- Fresh through
- 25 Sept 2026, 14:39 UTC
- Rebuild reason
- None
- Inputs
- 0f7eb8adc2b26ed2074e3e22be5d94c0892a1fb66044c2b4356a48c7bed7b53c
- Manifest
- 6b22c99eab31c8b8d957a4794cd6054482b60ab59dd8663a9a0fcb5034536a28