Stockcastr
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Think you can
read a chart? Prove it.

Stockcastr asks a few hundred people the same question — where an earnings number lands, where an IPO prices, where a chart goes next — and scores every answer. Not on whether you were right, but on whether your confidence matched reality. Do it enough times and you have something most people who talk about markets don't: evidence.

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No money, no stake, nothing to deposit. Points and a public record.

10Questions open right now
24Forecasters ranked
12Questions resolved
0.417Best Normalized Brier skill on the board

Open right now

Every question is public from the moment it opens, and stays at the same address once it resolves.
What's private is how the crowd answered — that stays hidden from you until you've answered it too.

The figure on each card is what the market says right now — the analyst consensus, the filed range, the shape of the window.
It is never what the crowd here thinks: that stays hidden until you've answered too. Anyone can read any of these without an account.

Being right isn't the point.
Knowing how right you are is.

Anyone can call a market and remember the wins. Stockcastr makes you say how confident you are before you find out, then holds you to it. That single constraint is what turns opinions into a track record.

  1. Answer

    A chart with the ticker and dates removed, an earnings question, or an IPO about to price. You pick an outcome and state how likely you think it is.

  2. Get scored

    Not pass or fail. A confident correct call beats a hedged one, and a confident wrong call costs more than admitting you weren't sure. Overclaiming is expensive by design.

  3. Build a record

    Every answer joins a calibration curve — do your 70% calls land 70% of the time? Climb from Novice to Master and it becomes a public, checkable claim about your judgement.

The measurement nobody applies to themselves

A well-calibrated forecaster's 70% calls land about 70% of the time. Most people are nowhere near — confidence outruns accuracy, and the gap widens the more certain they feel.

The chart shows a real contributor's record. On the diagonal is perfect. Above it is overconfidence, and it's the single most common shape we see. Closing that gap is worth more here than simply being right more often.

See a full record

The board

Ranked by skill, not by volume and not by points. The top of this list gets written up in the newsletters every week.

See a full leaderboard
Top 10 forecasters by Normalized Brier skill
RankForecasterTierNormalized Brier skillResolved
1 seed_atlasExpert0.416712
1 seed_finchExpert0.416712
1 seed_lumenExpert0.416712
4 seed_asterForecaster0.333312
4 seed_beaconForecaster0.333312
4 seed_candorForecaster0.333312
4 seed_emberForecaster0.333312
4 seed_meridianForecaster0.333312
9 seed_cedarForecaster0.2512
9 seed_groveForecaster0.2512

Where the questions come from

Most are written by us, seeded from the arguments already running in Aether's finance newsletters.
The rest are proposed by forecasters who wanted the crowd's read on something and had the record to ask for it.

  • Coinstack

    Crypto charts. Direction calls and pattern labelling on the majors.

  • IPO Stream

    IPO Stream

    Where offerings price against their range, and what drove it.

  • Sentimentracker

    Sentiment

    Which indicators actually carried signal, tested against outcomes.

  • WhaleTales

    WhaleTales

    Cross-asset and high-flow contexts where the tape gets interesting.

Find out if you're
actually any good

No waitlist and nothing to pay. Pick a question you have a view on, say how sure you are, and let the market mark it. Reading costs nothing either — if you'd rather look around first, start with the open questions.

Start forecastingRead the open questions