seed_piper
ApprenticeA public record of how one forecaster's resolved answers have performed. Aggregates only — no individual forecast is ever shown here, and nothing appears before its question has resolved.
Calibration
Each point is a band of stated confidence. On the diagonal means 70% calls landed about 70% of the time; above it the forecaster was more right than claimed, below it less.
The same figures as a table
| Said | Landed | Answers | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–20% | — | 0 | Too few to read— |
| 20–40% | — | 0 | Too few to read— |
| 40–60% | — | 0 | Too few to read— |
| 60–80% | — | 0 | Too few to read— |
| 80–100% | — | 0 | Too few to read— |
By task type
eligible window| Task type | Forecast skill | Resolved |
|---|---|---|
| Chart.price-target | 0.50 | 1 |
| Earnings.outlook | 0.50 | 1 |
| Ipo.day-one-pop | 0.50 | 1 |
| Ipo.debut | 0.50 | 1 |
| Earnings.revenue | 0.1667 | 3 |
| Chart.direction-pattern | -0.50 | 1 |
| Chart.setup | -0.50 | 1 |
| Earnings.eps | -0.50 | 1 |
| Ipo.pricing | -0.50 | 1 |
| Macro.outcome | -0.50 | 1 |
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Test-only weekly normalized Brier-skill ranking; production policy is not approved. · Consented public profiles drawn from eligible current reputation snapshots in the named leaderboard run. · updated 25 Sept 2026, 14:50 UTC
Preview methodology. This public record uses a test method.
An update is overdue. This is the last calculated record.
View these rankingsTechnical details
- Run
- 01a0d90c-3098-7191-9c9f-8c05b36030d9
- Policies
- test-only/public-profile-v1 · test-only/reputation-v1 · test-only/calibration-buckets-v1 · test-only/leaderboard-brier-skill-v1
- Inputs
- 8bed77c277227c006fe9c091e1d4b9fec353cbe9d13638e1f1be1cb1a5707174